Insurance - Reinsurance Industry Report

September 2021



Exploratory Data Analysis

Distribution of the Response

Correlation between Covariates and Response

Avg Pct Change Sd Pct Change Avg Vol Pe Ratio Price to Sales Ratio Price to Book Ratio Price to Fcf Ratio Debt to Equity Ratio Pays Dividend Dividend Yield Response
min -0.8% 0.6% 4960 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.32 0.000 0% -1.900
first_quart -0.1% 1% 216000 5.43 0.445 0.660 2.08 1.41 0.000 0% -0.113
median 0% 1.2% 338000 7.03 1.220 0.820 4.42 1.95 1.000 0.7% 0.445
mean 0% 1.4% 339000 15.00 1.750 0.808 10.00 2.44 0.567 0.8% 0.196
third_quart 0.2% 1.7% 437000 10.10 2.570 0.970 6.62 3.14 1.000 1.6% 0.692
max 0.9% 5.7% 904000 648.00 19.100 1.610 628.00 7.21 1.000 2.6% 1.080



Model Tuning

Random Forest Models

Gradient Boosted Models



Final Models

Random Forest Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • min_n: 3, mtry: 10
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.1779
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.2769


Gradient Boosted Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 3, tree_depth: 5
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.0129
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.0175




Future Predictions

Company Quarter Price RF Prediction GB Prediction
RGA 2021 Q2 $125.96 117.32% 117.76%
RNR 2021 Q2 $159.02 27.44% 9.25%
RE 2021 Q2 $260.28 16.65% 22.75%
GLRE 2021 Q2 $9.16 -47.09% -37.56%
SPNT 2021 Q2 $10.48 -47.75% -16.68%
OXBR 2021 Q2 $2.41 -52.77% 28.02%
MHLD 2021 Q2 $3.48 -72.45% -40.71%